If an asteroid is ongoing collision with the moon, what should humanity do? Do you try to push the space rock before you hit? Oblit it with a nuclear explosion?
Those are the questions explored in a recent article of more than a dozen researchers, including several NASA scientists. And they are not purely hypothetical: it is estimated that an asteroid known as 2024 years4 has a 4% probability of hitting the moon in 2032.
Such cosmic collision could produce debris “up to 1,000 times above the background levels in just a few days, possibly threatening the astronauts and the spacecraft” in the orbit of the Low Earth, the researchers wrote in the document, which went up to the Arxiv Preimpression website on September 15, but has not yet been reviewed.
To avoid creating that potentially dangerous debris field, an option is to attack the asteroid, according to the document, or activate what scientists call a “robust interruption”, before it reaches the moon.
Cue the references of “Armageddon” movies.
But the use of a nuclear explosion to destroy an asteroid has never been tested, so the plan would come with a lot of important risks.
No key characteristics are known about asteroid 2024 years 4, including its mass, which would be critical to discover how to “interrupt it” correctly without creating more problems.
“If the explosion is not enough, you will create a field of rubble anyway,” said Julie Brisset, interim director of Florida Space Institute, who was not involved with the newspaper.
Asteroid 2024 years 4 was first detected by the station of the asteroid land impact alert system in Chile in December. NASA estimates that it measures up to 220 feet wide, large enough to be considered a “city murderer” because it could be able to cause serious damage to a city or region on Earth.
Initially, experts thought there was a small possibility that the asteroid could reach our planet, and it was estimated that the probability of such impact was as high as 3% earlier this year. But then a collision with the earth was ruled out.
Now it is believed that the Earth is in the clear, the asteroid 2024 years has a 4.3% chance of hitting the moon.
The authors of the recent article suggested to launch a mission to carry out the recognition of the asteroid, including the estimation of its mass close. After that, they proposed, an explosive device could be built and then implemented to the space rock.
Alternatively, if destroying the asteroid with a nuclear explosion is too extreme, the researchers detailed how it could be pushed out of the way.
NASA has some experience with that: in a first test of its kind in 2022, its Dart probe intentionally crashed into a small space rock known as dimorphs to alter its trajectory. The maneuver was carried out 6.8 million miles from the earth and changed the Dimorphos path in space, shortening its orbit in 33 minutes, according to NASA.
But a successful deviation would also require knowing the asteroid mass 2024 years4, Brisset said.
In response to NBC news investigation to NASA on the recent document, Kelly Fast, the agency’s interim planetary defense officer, said in a statement that there are no plans to divert or interfere with the asteroid.
However, he said there are plans to study it at the beginning of next year using the James Webb space telescope. Any finding could provide a better vision of your orbital path.
“If observed, additional data could improve our knowledge of where the asteroid will be in December 2032,” said Fast, “and could reduce the 0%impact probability.”
Even if the space missions such as those described in the document could be carried out, there would be political considerations to navigate.
Although there are no long -term astronauts or habitats on the moon, that is not always the case. China, for example, has said that it aims to land its astronauts on the moon by 2030. Chinese officials have also said that the country can build a nuclear plant on the lunar surface to feed a moon base that plans to operate jointly with Russia.
The United States plans to launch regular missions to the lunar surface before NASA finally ventures to Mars. But NASA’s future missions and priorities Remain in the flow amid important personnel cuts and the budget plan of President Donald Trump for NASA, which proposes to cut more than $ 6 billion of its budget.
To detonate a nuclear device in space could also add tension to the growing space race between the United States, China and other space countries, with possible conflicts over which countries and space agencies would lead or participate in the project, Brisset said.
“It would probably be countries that have the technical capacity to do so,” he said, “which may reduce it to three or four, but would they want to work together?”
