As distrust runs high in Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban, rulers in Kabul are reaching out to regional states to break their isolation and deepen economic ties.
While no one has formally recognized the Taliban regime, states are doing business with Kabul on the verge of achieving recognition. In a significant development, the Taliban Foreign Minister recently met the Indian Foreign Secretary in Dubai, with the Afghan side describing India as an “important regional and economic partner.”
Trade relations were apparently the key area of discussion. It may be recalled that India was a major player in Afghanistan before the Taliban takeover in 2021. According to media reports, New Delhi had pumped $3 billion into Afghanistan for “reconstruction” projects, and former members of the Northern Alliance maintained warm relations with India. The Indians have reacted cautiously towards the Taliban, but things continue anyway. The Taliban also maintains important ties with China and Russia.
These developments should worry Pakistan and cause its policymakers to review their Afghan strategy. The harsh reality is that while the Afghan Taliban may be difficult customers, Pakistan cannot afford to have a hostile neighbor to its west. Islamabad’s concerns about the TTP’s bases in Afghanistan are valid, but it may need to change its strategy with the Taliban for the message to get through.
At a recent seminar in Islamabad, some experts opined that instead of reaching out to the rulers in Kabul, Pakistan should raise the TTP issue with the Taliban leadership in Kandahar, from where the real power in Afghanistan flows.
Although Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada is a reclusive figure, if Pakistan manages to engage with him or those close to him and convince them to relocate the TTP and other anti-Pakistan terrorists away from the border, this could improve the security situation in the country. area. country with minimal costs. Measures of this type have been tried before (with limited success) when the Taliban leadership issued a fatwa in 2023 that prevented its cadres from waging a ‘jihad’ inside Pakistan.
The Taliban can maintain the TTP as long as they do not cause any harm to Pakistan. The current strategy (limited talks and kinetic actions against Kabul) has failed to solve the problem. While others are making diplomatic advances with the Afghan Taliban, including hostile governments, Pakistan must reassess and readjust its strategy.
Islamabad should work with other states in the region to emphasize that the Taliban must take stronger counterterrorism measures, so that militant groups cannot threaten Afghanistan’s neighbors. However, it must also involve the Taliban high command in Kandahar, as well as politicians in Kabul, so that the doors of negotiation are not closed. If relations with Afghanistan deteriorate further, it will increase insecurity in this country and give hostile states room to maneuver.
Published in Amanecer, January 11, 2025.
