Climate impacts can increase the prevalence of diseases in coffee crops, reducing general yields for farmers. Studies have shown that Arabica bean, which constitutes approximately 60% of all coffee produced worldwide, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. And although American coffee producers in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, California and other places sell their own harvest beans, their production is not close enough to meet domestic demand, a reality shared by farmers of specialized crops imported from Wasabi to Bayas of Goji.
“As the long -term climate changes, these climatic conditions are much more likely to reach the extremes and cause losses in coffee yields, as well as volatility to coffee production,” said Jeffrey Sachs, a sustainable economist of the Columbia University.
Retail coffee prices are expected to increase in a “pronounced” way during the first quarter of this year, Bank of America analysts wrote in a client note. They expect the main food companies, such as JM Smucker, which sells coffee under multiple brands, including folgers, and Keurig Dr Pepper, who sells Lavazza coffee, spend at least some of the cost increases to consumers.
No company responded to requests for comments.
Until now, higher coffee prices in basic products markets have not been completely perceived in consumer cups. Federal data published on Wednesday showed that the prices that people paid for coffee, in all their forms, were more or less stable from December to January, although 3.1% increased last month of 12 months before, only one Little hotter than inflation in general. But instant prices of coffee have been heating, raising 7.1% last month compared to the previous year, and in 4.4% from December to January.
The general cost of drip coffee has increased every year since 2021, when it was $ 0.12 per cup, according to NIQ market researchers. They estimated that a cup of drip coffee cost $ 0.18 at the beginning of this year, while coffee pods like those found in Keurig machines have also had a higher trend. Those have also constantly increased, from $ 0.50 per cup in 2021 to $ 0.55 at the beginning of 2025.
The main toasters such as Starbucks have tried to reassure investors about their strategies to handle global price peaks. “Our impact on the price of coffee year after year was minimal,” said Starbucks, Rachel Ruggeri, recently, shareholders.
Sachs said that coffee prices are still high in the coming months, and that climate change is likely to bring more important blows to global food supplies during the next decade. The world should reduce greenhouse gas emissions much faster to reduce these accelerated risks and increase investments in agricultural resilience systems, they warn and other climatic researchers.
Global coffee scarcity has taken imported coffee supplies to its lowest level since November, according to Intercontinental Exchange data. The production of Arabica coffee in Brazil will decrease this year by 12.4% compared to last year, according to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture. If this production forecast is precise, it would be the lowest level since 2022, Ing analysts said last week.
