The crisis of the waiting list in the elderly home that reaches some of New Brunswick’s biggest hospitals this summer can be establishing new albums, but it should not be a surprise.
Governments have known for decades the population of the province was aging, and they would have to face an increasing number of older people who needed attention.
“We are far behind the eight ball and we are trying to catch up,” said Minister Susan Holt at a recent press conference.
Already in 1991, a report warned that the province had to be taken seriously about home service.
The report, which improves the independence of older adults: construction for the future, written under the liberal government of Frank McKenna, projected the participation of the elderly in the population that rose from nine percent in 1976 to one at that time 13.1 percent in 2006.
Last year, they represented 22.9 percent.
Without a policy change, “inappropriate admissions” to hospitals and nursing homes would fill available beds, a expensive option compared to home care, according to the 34 -year report.
The government reports dating from more than 30 years warned that a population of aging brunnswick required a change to more home attention.
Both parties know during the last 20 to 30 years that this tsunami approached, “said Florence Parks, a resident of Saint John and former employee of an elderly home who contacted CBC News this week.
“No one did anything about it.”
Holt lamented at his press conference on July 17 “a story of not moving quick enough to transform the way we provide attention in New Brunswick. And so we have a perfect storm.”
At the beginning of the week, Horizon issued a public statement for the province to grant the “state of critical state admission prioritization” for more than 650 hospital patients who did not need acute care but who were waiting for placement in a long -term care center, such as an elderly home.
“It makes the waiting times of the emergency department grow more. Strong attention to being delivered in halls, dining areas, halls and other improvised spaces, conditions that are far from being ideal for patients, families and personnel,” said CEO Margaret Melanson.
The Holt government agreed the measure for 30 days.
The prime minister said that the estimates of how many people need attention in the homes of elders and special care homes “has increased and increased” faster than the creation of beds in such facilities, despite the fact that the trend is known for a long time.
“We live in an aging society and with that brings different challenges,” said Progressive Conservative Minister Bernard Lord during the 2006 election campaign. “The elderly need more attention for the elderly.”
I was visiting the construction site of an elderly home outside Saint John, a project that had been delayed several times.
He said the new home “would relieve part of the pressure of what is often called bed blockers” in New Brunswick hospitals.
But Lord did not promise any new additional nursing home in that campaign. Nor did the leader who defeated him, the liberal Shawn Graham.
“Home attention has to come first and foremost, but will they fix it?” Cecile Cassista, executive director of the Seniors coalition and the rights of the residents of the elderly households. “I have been saying that for 20 years: ‘You need to fix it.’ And they are not fixing it.”
“There is no political will. If there were, they would.
Last week, Holt blamed the progressive conservative government of Blaine Higgs for not moving rapid enough in primary care to avoid the pressure facing hospitals this summer.
And home care “has not really had attention in the last issue of years,” he said.
The 1991 McKenna government report that predicts a population that ages and requested more home attention, was the first of many.
But leaders often focused their promises in other places.
In 2006, Lord and Graham selected who would do more, and who would move faster, to exempt the assets of the elderly from the calculation of what they pay to the costs of elderly households, in other words, to put a majority of the taxpayers’ expenses.
A subsequent report by the province’s general auditor concluded that these policy changes contributed to great increases to the waiting list for care in the elderly.
The population of the elderly exceeds 196,000
A Government 2008 Government Report on Superior Care, “Be Independent. Longer,” also requested expanded home attention.
That report underestimated how much the population was aging, projecting that 188,300 new brunnswickers would be 65 years or older by 2026.
But Statistics Canada estimated last year that the number was already above 196,000.
In 2012, PC Prime Minister David Alward said the potential cost of caring for a cohort of older and larger older people kept him awake at night.
Alward commissioned a report that asked the new Brunswickers to “change fundamentally the way they see the aging and role of older adults.”
A 2017 report for Brian Gallant’s liberal government also warned about a population that ages.
He asked for more provincial support for home care programs, which said he was in “an unfortunate stage.”
At that time, Horizon’s hospitals were taking care of an average of 466 patients with alternative alternatives, people who could have been in elderly households or special care homes.
The number increased to 480 in 2018-19, fell for three years during the Covid-19 pandemic, and was pressing 500 in 2022-23.
Exceeded 600 this year.
A government tried a bold action during that time: the Blaine Higgs PC government launched a reform in 2019 eliminating night emergency care in six small hospitals and turning them into alternative facilities at the level of attention with a total of 120 beds.
But the emergency room reductions were so unpopular, Higgs backed down in a matter of days.
Expansion of the elderly household program without walls
Last week, when the Holt government agreed to Horizon’s application to put alternative patients at the level of care at the top of the elderly household waiting list, he could not say how many people could be transferred.
On Monday, the province agreed a similar request from the Vitalité Health Network for the Chaleur Regional Hospital in Bathurst.
Liberals expect an expansion of the elderly household program without walls, established by Higgs, facilitate that some older people remain in their homes, and make more beds available for hospitals transfers.
The program provides some nursing home services to older people living in their own homes.
“We are starting to see some of that snowball work, but there is much more to do,” said Holt.
He also acknowledged that the performance objective he established for the elderly households in his state speech in the province in January may seem disappointing.
The objective is to maintain the provincial waiting list exactly where it was at that time, 1,088 patients, until 2028.
Given the growing number of older people who need attention, even that is not easy, Holt said.
“The current demographic projections would see the number of people waiting in hospitals and wait at home that these beds rise exponentially,” he said.
“And so, for us, it was the best thing we thought we could do was reduce that exponential increase, so that we kept the list as it is.”
That is not a great prognosis for hospital administrators, but Holt said other initiatives, such as improvements in primary care, should further relieve pressure.
And after more than three decades of warnings, simply preventing the problem from worsening would represent a gloomy achievement.
