The Parti Québécois’ dominance in the polls for almost two years and its leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s promise to hold a referendum on Quebec sovereignty during his first term have resonated all the way to the federal capital.
Officials in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government held talks this fall to determine how Ottawa should respond to the PQ’s rhetoric in Quebec City, according to Radio-Canada sources.
So far, the offices of the prime minister, his Quebec lieutenant and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc have been involved in these talks, according to two Liberal sources familiar with the matter.
The idea, a source said, is not that the federal government becomes a counterweight to the PQ. “That depends on the Quebec Liberal Party,” the source said. Rather, it is to ensure that messages from elected officials in Ottawa are consistent.
Many things can change in a year, sources noted. healthAlthough the PQ has a lead of about 20 points in the polls, Plamondon’s election in the provincial election scheduled for October 2026 is not yet a foregone conclusion.
At the same time, Ottawa does not want to be caught off guard, as some criticized Jean Chrétien’s government in 1995, before the last referendum on Quebec sovereignty.
“We are not going to wait for the possible election of the Quebec Party to organize and wake up and say, ‘What are we going to do?'” said a Liberal source familiar with the file.
The source noted that in recent months, several social media influencers have spoken out in favor of the “yes” option. “We could have a similar strategy, focusing on young people,” he said. “It is clear that the world has changed a lot since 1995.”
In the short term, we must “prove that Canada works,” the source continued. “Promote the benefits of the federation among Quebecers.”
But one thing is certain, he says.d: “This is not about repeating the sponsorship scandal.”
When asked about the referendum question on Tuesday, Carney’s new lieutenant in Quebec, Joël Lightbound, said his priority right now is “to offer good jobs and a developed economy for Quebecers.”
On Thursday, Lightbound added that the goal is to “highlight the Canadian government’s role in promoting culture.” [in Quebec]”.
“In the last budget we saw historic investments and how we play a role in people’s lives,” he said. “The goal is to present this message from the government of Canada.”
Joly targets PQ leader
A few weeks ago, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly directly attacked Plamondon, stating that the PQ leader “wants to hand Quebec over to Donald Trump, throw him into his arms.”
The comments came after Plamondon called for a “closer relationship” with the United States, laying out part of his vision for a sovereign Quebec, saying the province has “a vested interest in speaking with our own voice and establishing our own diplomacy in Washington.”
Plamondon wants to “make Quebec much weaker in the face of a United States that is gaining enormous power,” Joly suggested, adding: “I am very concerned that the PQ wants to create this rapprochement.”
Behind the scenes, three liberals said they found Joly’s comments clumsy.
“By directly attacking the PQ leader, the minister elevated Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to the federal stage. She gave him stature, although he remains the leader of the third opposition party in Quebec City,” said a source.
The Bloc Québécois seized the opportunity, claiming that the Carney government was still using the same arguments against sovereignty.
“I think it is normal for the federal Liberals to start thinking about a possible referendum,” said leader Yves-François Blanchet in an interview with Radio-Canada. “But what we are seeing as the first manifestation of their approach… are the old scare tactics that are not based in truth.”
Blanchet also said he hopes the federalists will not be tempted to “cheat or manipulate the rules” if the separatists come to power in Quebec.
Last Tuesday, the Journal de Montréal reported that, a few months before the 1995 referendum, then Prime Minister Jean Chrétien had asked his Immigration Minister to speed up the processing of citizenship applications to allow newcomers to vote and thus favor the “no” vote.
Chrétien has been summoned to appear before a parliamentary committee to discuss the revelations.
Conservatives are also preparing
It’s not just the federal Liberals who are starting to worry about the possibility of a referendum in Quebec.
A Conservative Party source said he believes “this issue could become central to Canadian politics after 2026” and that “it would behoove us to start talking about it subtly.”
In a speech to the Quebec City Chamber of Commerce and Industry on Nov. 6, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said he understood that many young Quebecers do not have a strong sense of belonging to Canada.
“We have a federal government that has been saying for 10 years that Canada has no identity, that it is a post-national state. And it continues to denigrate our history.”
Poilievre said we should not only “be proud of our history as a country” but also “recognize that Quebec nationalism is part of Canadian patriotism.”
In the event of a referendum, Poilievre would focus on decentralization and respect for Quebec’s areas of jurisdiction, according to a party source, as other conservatives did before him.
But beyond the Conservative family, the fear among some federalists is that there will be less appetite among anglophones to please Quebec, especially with the West, which wants its piece of the pie, a source in Ottawa said.
In 1995, a few days before that referendum, thousands of Canadians flocked to Montreal to express their love for Quebec and encourage voters to remain part of the federation.
“If there is a referendum in the next few years, I fear there will be an exit, not an acceptance, from the rest of Canada,” the source said.
