Recent floods have resulted in misery, displacement, death, loss of properties and livestock, crop destruction and infrastructure damage.
While total losses have not yet been calculated, it is essential to understand their economic repercussions and the urgent need to initiate damage limitation measures.
The floods of 2022, which only affected Sindh and Baluchistan, had displaced 33 million people, submerged their homes, destroyed cattle and crops and damaged infrastructure, including the irrigation network. That flood killed more than 1,100 people and caused economic losses for a sum of $ 30 billion, or 10 percent of GDP. Clearly, global warming has made firm roots in the form of droughts, melting glaciers, floods, torrential rains, heat waves and the increase in sea level. Our response capacity must match the challenge.
No other economic sector has such strong ties back and forth for national well -being as agriculture. The situation, therefore, requires a holistic sector approach instead of narrow. In the immediate term, the ongoing review of the IMF guarantees a review of the performance indicators and the structural reference points in the light of the changes projected in the underlying variables. At least, seven important links can be identified.
GDP growth rate: although the direct contribution of agriculture to GDP is only 23pc, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage and other auxiliary services depend on its contributions, such as raw material, processing, marketing, distribution of crops, cattle, dairy, fruits and pulses, pulses, oil seeds, etc., etc., etc., etc., etc. An assumption of this indirect that does not accumulate another 25 that produce another increase in accessories. Therefore, the GDP growth rate depends highly not only on agricultural performance but also on allied activities. Together, they represent 50 % of the economy.
EMPLOYMENT: The proportion of the workforce used directly on the farm is almost 37pc, including non -agricultural income. An approximate assumption is that approximately 60-70 percent of total employment can be attributed to the rural economy. A significant fall in rural employment would result in a decrease in purchasing power and the greatest incidence of poverty.
What steps should be taken to minimize the impact of flood losses?
Inflation: The shortage of grains, vegetables, legumes and interruption of the supply chain would increase the consumer price index causing inflationary pressures. When climbing wheat flour and sugar prices, the probability of greater inflation in the coming months cannot be ruled out.
The lowest income quintile spends approximately 40 percent of your food income. Floods would harm the poor that they cannot pay the highest food prices.
Poverty and income distribution: Income poverty estimates show that rural poverty is 28 percent compared to 11 pieces in urban areas. The income distribution is also biased in favor of the great owners.
The recent agriculture census shows that the main 4 % of the owners have a third of the total area of the farm, while the lower 80pc of farmers who have less than five acres have another third, with the remaining one third belonging to the medium owners. The negative changes in poverty staff and income distribution are the result of flood losses.
Exports: Eighty percent of Pakistan merchandise exports derive its raw material, such as Ginned cotton, spinning rice, leather and food products, rural sources. Cotton and thread are already being brought from abroad. It is likely that this volume will increase in the sequelae of the floods, affecting our current account balance.
Food Security and Nutrition: In Pakistan, 38 million people face moderate to severe food insecurity (18 percent of children are malnourished). These numbers must have increased after floods.
Wheat is the main crop in Pakistan; Therefore, policies and incentives for planting in a larger area during the next season of Rabi must be ensured through a federal coordinated strategy.
Output of manufactured goods: The production of products such as motorcycles, bicycles, fertilizers, pesticides, tractors and other agricultural equipment, as well as articles of light consumers depend on the demand for rural homes. The manufacturing sector is already under stress and it is likely that a drop in demand will result in a decrease in production, eliminating labor and intensifying unemployment and poverty.
What steps should be taken to minimize the impact of short and medium term flood losses?
- Provide farmers with less than five acres of land access to certified seeds of good quality, fertilizers and pesticides to subsidized rates through Kissan cards; 2) Use the BISP database to identify affected homes for additional cash transfers; 3) Accelerate the disbursement of agricultural credit and reprogram the payments of old and slope loans for small farmers; 4) configure mobile veterinary services in areas where cattle have suffered more; 5) Perform an audit of the national river paths to clean the beds of the rivers and the roads of the invasions, and develop shelters in highlands for residents of low areas; 6) Prepare projects to strengthen embankments and flood protection work, disappoire channels and manage soil afforestation and conservation; 7) Promote contractual agriculture between processors, extractors and buyers of basic products and producers to guarantee stable and predictable prices; 8) Minimize transport losses when reviewing water courses and promoting drip and sprinkler, instead of flooding, irrigation. Currently, only 41MAF of 145 MAF of water from the Indo irrigation system reaches the crops; 9) Rehabilitate, restore and expand wetlands, develop small dams and deposits to store rainwater, recharge groundwater storage in farms and promote the use of solarized pipe wells; 10) Assign funds so that R&D institutions develop heat -resistant seeds, drought and cold temperatures, which can resist pests and diseases caused by climate change; 11) Encourage the private sector to invest in storage, storage and cold storage and refrigerated vans; 12) While wheat trade must be deregulated, the provinces must have strategic reserves for liberation in thin months when prices increase. The movement between districts and fixed flour and the prices of the final product must be discouraged. Allowing imports and exports must depend on the situation.
As recommended by the 2018 National Water Policy, an integrated water resource management system must be established that takes into account the transport of surface water, recharge and use of groundwater, drainage, flood protection work, barriers, drinking water, industrial water needs and water conservation.
As I have previously indicated: ‘Changing climate patterns will significantly affect temporal distribution and water availability in the coming decades and the accelerated fusion of glaciers and river overload will affect food safety, water and energy, which represents a serious threat to the standard of living.
The writer is a former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.
Posted in Dawn, September 16, 2025
