Welcome to the online version of Of the policy desktopA night bulletin that provides the latest report and analysis of the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign.
In today’s edition, our Capitol Hill team offers status control over the “big and beautiful bill”, since Senate Republicans aim to vote this week. We also have the latest in the middle of a high fragile fire between Israel and Iran. And Steve Kornacki appears to the primary of mayor of New York City tonight.
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Senate Republicans rush tense divisions as Trump increases the pressure to approve their great bill
By Sahil Kapur, Julie Tsirkin, Frank Thorp V and Ryan Noble
Medicaid cuts for the Senate bill are too aggressive for politically vulnerable Republicans.
Their clean energy financing cuts are too meek for the conservative Republicans of the Chamber, who threaten to sink the legislation.
And the $ 10,000 limit in state and local fiscal deductions is a non -premiere for the key Republicans of the House of Representatives.
The Congress led by the Republican Party is running towards its own deadline for the approval of Big Beutiful Bill Ley, and is disorderly in the final stretch as President Donald Trump increases the pressure on legislators to put him in his desk before July 4.
“For my friends in the Senate, lock yourself in a room if necessary, do not go home and make the deal this week,” Trump wrote in Truth Social. “He works with the house so they can pick it up and spend it immediately. No one goes on vacation until it ends.”
The approval of the bill of the line of the party through the Chamber and the Senate, where the Republicans have three votes left over in each camera, will be a discouraging task that requires a bridge of acrimonium divisions. The most difficult part will be formed in a final product that can unify moderate Republicans of the Senate, such as Susan Collins de Maine and Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, with the Caucus of the Freedom Freedom of the extreme right. These two factions have tended to drive the most difficult bargain.
After a conference lunch meeting, the leader of the majority of the Senate, John Thune, RS.D., told journalists that the objective of his camera is to obtain the bill “through the finish line at the end of the week”, with the aim of preparing a package that can win 51 votes in the Senate.
A half -period warning: Senator Thom Tillis, RN.C., who faces re -election in a battlefield state next year, warned his match during a Tuesday meeting that will suffer losses in the 2026 elections if they advance in the proposed Medicaid cuts. He compared the situation with the strong losses suffered by the Democrats in the partial exams of 2014 after a rocky deployment of Obamacare, according to a source in the room.
The meeting took place one day after Tillis distributed a document with estimates of how much medical money would lose the states of money if the Senate bill approves, including $ 38.9 billion in losses for North Carolina, $ 16 billion for Tennessee and $ 6.1 billion for Missouri.
Read more about the latest Capitol Hill →
It smells in Iran delayed its nuclear program several months, the sources say
By Gordon Lubold, Ken Domanian, Julie Tsirkin, Dan De Luce and Rebecca Shabad
An initial evaluation of the Defense Intelligence Agency concludes that American air attacks carried out during the weekend at Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites were not as effective as President Donald Trump said and only established the country’s nuclear program of three to six months, according to three people with knowledge of the report.
“We assumed that the damage was going to be much more significant than this evaluation is finding,” said one of the three sources. “This evaluation is already discovering that these main pieces are still intact. That is a bad sign for the general program.”
The conclusions of the evaluation were first informed by CNN.
White House Secretary Karoline Leavitt said reports on intelligence evaluation were inaccurate.
“This supposed evaluation is incorrect and was classified as ‘Top Secret’, but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous loser of low level in the intelligence community,” he said in a statement. “The escape of this supposed evaluation is a clear attempt to degrade President Trump and discredit the brave combat pilots who made a perfectly executed mission to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.”
She added: “Everyone knows what happens when you fall to fourteen bombs of 30,000 pounds perfectly in their objectives: total destruction.”
Read more →
Put up a day with our latest reports on the Israel-Iran conflict:
Trump attacks Israel and Iran: “They don’t know what they are doing,” from Megan Lebowitz
Democrats struggle to find a unified response to Trump’s strikes in Iran, Natasha Korecki, Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong
The speaker Mike Johnson says he believes that the law of war powers is “unconstitutional” by Rebecca Shabad
The legislators of the Republican Party say that Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize over the Alto El Fuego de Iran-Israel, by Rebecca Shabad
Follow live updates →
Breaking the status of the New York Mayor’s career on the primary day
Steve Kornacki analysis
The final public survey suggests the potential of a discomfort in the Primary of Democratic Mayor of New York on Tuesday, a result that would be dramatic but that could also end up solving anything.
The Emerson College/Wpix/The Hill survey shows former governor Andrew Cuomo state leader Zohran Mamdani 36% to 34% in the initial first option, with Mamdani finally exceeding Cuomo after multiple rounds of tabulation of classified choice and winning the end of 52% to 48%.
But some warnings are in order.
First, public surveys in the campaign have been scarce. Only Emerson and Marist University have been carrying them out regularly. And Marist’s final survey found a different result, with Cuomo above for two digits both at the beginning and at the end of the tabulation of classified choice.
One of those surveys can be much more precise than the other, although there is room for both of them to be right, since Marist took a week before and the race could have changed at that time.
The electorate composition is also uncertain. Both Emerson and Marist find that Cuomo has an advantage with the voters who said they would cast votes on Tuesday, instead of participating in the early vote or voting by mail. But will those voters appear in the numbers that polls will wait? It is a cliché to talk about how crucial participation is a variable, but there it is.
In addition, the vote of classified choice is still new in New York City; This is only the second mayor contest since it was implemented. It is still weird elsewhere. Therefore, no voting output has a deep and well established history when it comes to measuring such races. That said, Emerson’s final survey in the primary mayor of New York 2021 showed that the now May within Eric Adams exceeded Kathryn García in the final election round, which perfectly matched the real result.
Read more than Steve →
Related: What to see in the primaries of the Mayor’s Office of New York City, By Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman
🎙️Here’s the scoop
This week, NBC News launched “here is the scoop”, a new night podcast that gives it a new version of the main stories of the day in 15 minutes or less.
In today’s episode, presented by Morgan Chesky, the international chief correspondent Keir Simmons analyzes how the Middle East is responding to the fragile high fire between Israel and Iran. And the national political correspondent Steve Kornacki explains why the rest of the country should pay attention to the New York City Mayor’s career.
Listen to the episode here →
🗞️ The other main stories today
- 🔵 Youth Movement: The Democrats elected the representative Robert García de California, 47, about the representative Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts, 70, as the new ranking member of the House Supervision Committee, replacing the late representative Gerry Connolly de Virginia. Read more →
- 🏝️ On an island: The representative Thomas Massie, R-Ky., He is finding few friends in Capitol Hill in his growing dispute with Trump. Read more →
- ⏸️ Put it in pause: Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican of La-La., Criticized the elections of the Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for a vaccine advisory committee and said that the next meeting should not be held until members with relevant experience can be appointed. Read more →
- 🏦 Fed clock: The president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, defended the highest interest rates amid attacks by the Trump Administration and the Republican Party during a hearing of the Chamber Financial Services Committee. Read more →
- ⚖️ Legal Showdown: The Trump administration accused a federal judge of “unprecedented challenge” of a recent decision of the Supreme Court that raided the way for the sport government quickly to criminal immigrants to the “third countries.” Read more →
- 🗳️ 2026 (and 2028) Clock: Illinois JB Pritzker Democratic governor is expected
That’s all of the politics desk for now. Today’s bulletin was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan EBS.
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