Iran may be threatening to close the hormuk narrow, but experts told CNBC that it is also the one that has to lose the most.
In an important movement after the Iranian nuclear sites attacked us, the country’s parliament approved on Sunday the closing of the hormuz narrow, risking alienating its neighbors and commercial partners.
The decision to close the river route now falls to the National Security Council, and its possibility has increased the spectrum of the highest prices of energy and aggravated geopolitical tensions, and Washington asks Beijing to avoid the closure of the Strait.
Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights Energy Intelligence firm, told the “Squawk Box Asia” of CNBC that the possibility of closing remains “absolutely minimalist.”
If they will block the Strait, the country runs the risk of converting their neighboring countries producing oil into enemies and risks hostilities with them, he said.
The data of the United States Energy Information Administration revealed that Iran had sent 1.5 million barrels per day through the hormuz narrow in the first quarter of 2025.
In addition, a closure would also cause the Iran market in Asia, particularly China, which represents most Iranian oil exports.
“Very, very little to achieve, and a lot of self -inflicted damage that Iran could do,” Hari said.
His point of view is supported by Andrew Bishop, senior partner and Chief of Global Policies Research of the Advisors Advisor Advisory firm.
Iran will not want to antagonize China, he said, adding that interrupting supplies also “put an objective” in oil production, export infrastructure and the country’s regime “at a time when there are few reasons to doubt that we and Israelis are resolved to be ‘unleashed.’ ‘
Clayton Seigle, a senior member of Energy Security and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that as China is “very dependent” of the oil flows of the Gulf, not only in Iran, “its national security interest would really value the stabilization of the situation and a de -scellation that allows safe oil and gas flows through the narrow.”
There are currently no indications of threats for commercial shipping that pass through the river route, according to the joint maritime information center. “The ships associated with the US have successfully traveled the hormuz narrow without interruption, which is a positive sign for the immediate future.”
Impact of possible interruptions
The Hortuz Strait is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and about 20% of worldwide transit oil by river. The United States Energy Information Administration has described it as the “most important oil traffic strangulation point in the world.”
“It is unlikely that Iran’s operations in Hormuz and its surroundings are ‘all or nothing’, but instead they move along a sliding scale of a total interruption to any,” said the bishop of Signum.
“The best strategy [for Iran] It would be to shake hormuk oil flows enough to damage the US. Through the moderate upward prices movement, but not enough to cause a great response from the US. UU. To the production and export capacity of Iran’s oil, “he added.
On Sunday, Patrick of Haan, head of oil analysis at Gasbuddy, said in an X post that the bomb prices in the United States could rise to $ 3.35- $ 3.50 per gallon in the next few days, compared to the national average of $ 3.139 for the week of June 16.
If Iran decides to close the Strait, it is most likely to wear small boats for a partial blockade, or for a more complete solution, extract the river route, according to David Roche, strategist of the quantum strategy.
In a Sunday note, S&P Global Commodity Insights wrote that any Iranian closure of the Strait would affect not only the exports of Iran, but also those of the nearby nations of the Gulf such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.
That would potentially eliminate more than 17 billion barrels of oil from global markets and affect regional refineries by causing shortage of raw material, said the investigation firm. The interruption of the supply would affect Asia and Europe, as well as North America.
In addition to oil, natural gas flows could also be “severely affected,” said S&P, with Qatar gas exports of approximately 77 million metric tons per year potentially unable to reach key markets in Asia and Europe.
Qatar LNG exports represent approximately 20% of LNG’s global supply.
“Alternative supply routes for oil and the Gas of the Middle East are limited, with the capacity of the insufficient pipe to compensate for possible maritime interruptions through the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea,” S&P added.
Australia’s Commonwealth Bank said “there is a limited reach to avoid the hormuk strait.” The pipes in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have only a free capacity of 2.6 million barrels per day between them, while the narrow supervises the transport of approximately 20 million barrels of oil and oil products per day, the bank said in a note.
All these current risks for energy prices, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the market has a price in a geopolitical risk premium of $ 12.
If the oil flows through the Strait be reduced by 50% for a month and then remain low by 10% for another 11 months, it is forecast that Brent will briefly jump to a peak of around $ 110, Goldman said.
Brent Oil’s futures are currently $ 78.95 per barrel, while futures intermediates of western Texas were quoted at $ 75.75.
