• Major crops of 13.5 percent in the midst of the water crisis, restricting agriculture and the general growth of GDP
• Industry, low performance services; Manufacturing struggles on a large scale for the third consecutive year
• Inflation falls to 4.6pc, a minimum of 60 years, in the midst of interest rates in decline
• The financial tsar calls ‘a gradual recovery’, promises ‘change’ next year
• GDP growth reaches 2.68pc, lack of 3.56pc target
Islamabad: “Next year will be a change story,” Finance Minister Muhammad Aurengzeb promised on Monday, when he presented the Pakistan Economic Survey Document 2024-25 (PES), which highlighted the widespread landslides in the main sectors of the economy in the outgoing fiscal year.
When reviewing the economy qualifications, the finance minister suggested that Pakistan’s performance should be evaluated in a global context instead of a historical one.
He affirmed that although global economic growth has been in a decline trend, expanding 3.5pc in 2023, 3.3pc in 2024 and 2.8pc in 2025, Pakistan had progressed from a contraction of 0.2pc in 2023 to 2.5pc of growth in 2024, with an additional increase of almost 2.7pc this year.
“This is a gradual recovery and the correct way to guarantee sustainable growth,” he insisted, adding that no one wanted a return to the boom and fall cycles of the past.
The GDP growth of the current year will record at 2.68pc; Very, below the 3.56pc target, although slightly improved with respect to 2.5pc last year. It is below the average of five years of around 3.3pc, and well below the long -term average of Pakistan of more than 4.5pc.
Mr. Aurengzeb said that global inflation was 2.6pc in 2023, rose to 2.7pc in 2024, and is projected to reach 3.1PC in 2025. In contrast, inflation in Pakistan had fallen from 29pc in 2023 to 23pc in 2024, and now to a minimum of six declines of 4.6pc.
“Then, this has also moved in the right direction,” said Aurengzeb, noting that the reference interest rate had been reduced by 1,100 cumulative basic points during the current year to 11pc, below a peak of 22 percent. As a result, the ratio of public debt to GDP decreased from 68 percent last year to 65PC, helped by the government’s repurchase of approximately rs1 in debt, which created an additional fiscal space, said the minister.
Lost objectives
The economic survey data reveal that almost all the main components of the economy were lost objectives. The finance minister highlighted a 13.5pc contraction in the main crops, which is estimated to restrict the general GDP growth rate by 0.6pc. The general agricultural sector, which represents almost 24 percent of GDP, recorded a modest growth of 0.6pc this year, which is far from the objective of 2 percent and significantly below the growth of last year of 6.4pc. The main crops such as wheat, cotton and corn hired by 13.5pc, a more clear decrease than an estimated 4.5pc.
This was mainly due to the initial estimates of a 35-piece water shortage, which were then checked up to 11-12pc. As a result, cotton ginning saw a 19 percent decrease, compared to last year’s growth of 0.1pc, and well below a 2.3pc directed contraction limit.
Meanwhile, it was announced that the industrial sector showed a growth of 4.8 percent, exceeding the 4.4pc objective. However, this triggered some pointed questions. A journalist commented that the industry performance seemed likely to be reviewed later, since a contraction of almost 1 percent had been reported during the first nine months of the current year.
Within industries, mining and quarry hired by 3.4pc against a 5PC growth target, reducing for the third consecutive year. Similarly, large -scale manufacturing (LSM), which contributes almost 8pc to GDP, hired in 1.5pc, which is far from the growth target of 3.5pc.
This also marked the third consecutive year of struggles for LSM, which saw a 10 -piece contraction in the fiscal year ’23, followed by less than 1 percent growth in the fiscal year ’24 (which also, due to a low -grassroots effect), and followed by an additional 1.5pc contraction this year.
It was said that the services sector, which constitutes almost 59pc of GDP, recorded a 2.9pc growth, well below the 4.1pc objective. Within the services sector, wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage, financial and insurance services, and private services lost objectives, while government services, education and similar sectors exceeded expectations.
Separately, the investment ratio to GDP improved 13.8pc in fiscal year ’25, compared to 13.1pc in fiscal year ’24, although it did not reach the objective of 14.2pc. Private investment grew at 9.1pc, slightly below the 9.7pc objective. The national savings also saw an improvement, increasing to 14.1pc of GDP, exceeding the objective of 13.3pc.
Indian entrustic
Aurengzeb said that the structural reforms aimed at transforming the foundations of Pakistan’s economy would have been difficult to achieve without the extended background program (EFF) ongoing 37 months. The program, he said, had supported the tax reforms that increased the relationship imposed by GDP to a maximum of five years and contributed to a reduction in the losses of the electricity sector.
The minister described the recent release of a section of $ 1 billion of the IMF as a great success, achieved “against wind and tide.” For the first time publicly, it was revealed that India had actively opposed to measure.
“Just when our armed forces fought for a victory, a similar battle was fought on the economic front,” he said, claiming that the IMF Indian executive director had done everything possible to maintain the case of Pakistan outside the Board’s agenda, or, if included, to block the second institution of the EFF as a new resilience of $ 1.4bn and an ease of sustainability, which is the ease of support of the facility of the sustainability, which is the ease of sustainability, which is the ease of sustainability, Rate, it is crucial of the task.
But the bilateral allies and the multilateral partners of Pakistan were standing for the country and offered their support, said Aurengzeb, while acknowledging that this result would not have been possible without the strength of Pakistan’s economic performance.
Reform -centered budget
Mr. Aurengzeb also declared that the reforms in public finances, including pension reforms, government law and the privatization of public sector entities, would be driven, and this would be evident in the budget that will be presented on Tuesday (today).
The minister avoided multiple questions about the quality of the data and the use of May-June projections to calculate the growth numbers instead of depending on the real data. However, he affirmed his support for the published data, stating that, as Minister of Finance, he stayed behind him.
He also expressed his support for the inclusion of private sector members at the Board of the Pakistan Statistics Office, which is responsible for the Economic Survey Report.
Posted in Dawn, June 10, 2025
