The unexpected but long-awaited resignation of Canada’s prime minister has given rise to a host of economic issues and uncertainties, including in Manitoba.
Justin Trudeau resigned as leader of the federal Liberals on Monday, ending a nearly decade-long tenure as Canada’s political leader, and his departure (he will remain as party leader and prime minister until his successor is chosen) adds new turn to the situation. Canada’s response to Donald Trump’s tariff threat.
Regardless of who becomes premier and what color their political leanings are, the province’s industrial leaders want their voices to be heard by the country’s next leader.
Andrea Ladouceur, president of the Manitoba Biosciences Association, believes the hefty 25 per cent tariffs the U.S. president-elect threatened Canada with in November would be detrimental to business in the province.
“If there is a leadership race going on… for our companies, it is very important that they be a priority in any conversation related to tariffs and trade,” Ladouceur said.
Manitoba exported $2.3 billion worth of medicines to the United States in 2023, according to the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics. Medications, both prescription and over-the-counter, are the province’s largest exporter to the United States in dollar terms.
Ladouceur said his sector, which has “economic advantages,” is always looking for cost-competitive ways to do business, so if Canada becomes uncompetitive, the door could open for relocation to the United States or other parts of the world.
“Whether it’s innovative medicines or a new way of producing our food, we want to make sure that the leaders of our country and our province understand the economic importance and also the innovation that comes from the sector,” he said.
“We want them to be profitable enough to reinvest those dollars to continue to innovate our economy and make sure we have the things we need to heal, feed and fuel our world.”
SEE | Justin Trudeau prorogues parliament and resigns as leader of the federal Liberals:
In a major political development, Justin Trudeau has announced that he will step down as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party once a replacement is chosen, likely delaying the federal election until spring. Andrew Chang looks at what led to this announcement and the implications of proroguing Parliament amid rising tensions with the United States and President-elect Donald Trump. Images compiled from Reuters, Getty Images and The Canadian Press.
‘Absolutely critical market’
Trump said the tariffs responded to concerns about border security, migrants and illegal drugs, especially fentanyl.
Canada has since announced more than $1 billion to bolster border security, but it is unknown whether those promises will influence Trump to remove the tariffs. He will return to the Oval Office on January 20.
Barry Prentice, director of the Transportation Institute at the University of Manitoba, doesn’t expect Trump to follow through on the tariff threat.
“I don’t believe for a minute that there’s going to be a widespread increase in tariffs in Canada… it’s just too disruptive for them and for us,” Prentice said.
But he adds that the president-elect will do what he wants.
Prentice expects Trump to cancel all-out tariffs on incoming Canadian goods, but maintains the possibility that specific sectors, such as aluminum or steel, could be hit by strategic tariffs, even in the short term.
He believes the Trump administration recognizes that Canada is headed toward a future Conservative government and that the Liberals are unlikely to reach agreements with Republicans.
“The bureaucrats are always there and of course they have the information about what’s happening and the connections. It’s not like the ship is going to float without anchor,” Prentice said.
And if tariffs were applied, he believes some industries in the province could be affected more than others, including the pork industry.
Cam Dahl certainly hopes not.
The CEO of Manitoba Pork says a comprehensive, strategic plan is needed against potential tariffs that would ruin one of the province’s largest exporters to the United States.
He says Trudeau’s announced departure cannot delay talks on such a plan.
“We still have the government. We still have the cabinet. We still have ministers and this should be at the top of their list of work that they are carrying out. So I hope that our federal Minister of Agriculture is we are going to take up this task and take on the job of making sure we have a plan in place,” Dahl said.
“It has to include all the provinces. It has to include the farmers. It has to include the industry.”
A total of $439 million worth of pork and live hogs (about 40 per cent of what is produced in the province) was transported south of the border in 2023, and the sector contributes more than $2 billion annually to the provincial economy.
“It’s not just pork. It’s widespread. The United States is our largest market, whether it’s canola, wheat, oats, pork or beef. It’s an absolutely critical market for us,” Dahl said.
Chuck Davidson says partisan politics must be put aside in the face of the tariff threat looming over the country.
Davidson, president of the Manitoba Chamber of Commerce, calls a potential tariff war with the United States a “lose-lose situation” for both nations.
“There is a long-standing relationship between the two countries from a trade perspective that has been beneficial to both sides, but that uncertainty is something that businesses never like,” he said.
Until there is some certainty about what exactly Trump plans to do once he takes office, that will determine how provincial and federal leaders respond, Davidson said, adding that Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew and other Canadian premiers “they have really intensified” the importance of the relationship with the United States
Kinew is in North Dakota and will meet with that state’s newly elected leader, Gov. Kelly Armstrong, on Tuesday and attend her State of the State address.
The prime minister spoke Monday about trade with Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen.
“There is a lot of good work that these efforts (that we are expanding in the US right now) will have to ensure that our economic interests in terms of their jobs, in terms of continuing to grow as an exporting province, can advance even as we go through this period of turbulence and uncertainty,” he said.
Kinew also thanked Trudeau for his years of service and said Canada’s prime ministers will continue to avoid tariffs.
“That should be a reassuring sign to Canadians and Manitobans that while the prime minister has announced his intention to step down, it is the leaders of the provinces and territories who will continue to remain in charge.”
