WASHINGTON – House Speaker Mike Johnson is laying out an ambitious strategy to answer President-elect Donald Trump’s call to pass his agenda in “one big, beautiful bill,” a plan that will test the limits of its slim Republican majority.
Johnson, R-Louisiana, said Sunday that the partisan bill will contain provisions on border security, energy, boosting manufacturing and tax policies. He also called for expanding the debt ceiling in the same bill and approving it in the House already in the first week of April.
It’s an exceptionally difficult task in a slim 219-215 House majority that is expected to shrink even further in the coming months as two members of the Republican Party resign to join the Trump administration. When that happens, Johnson won’t be able to lose a single vote without needing help from Democrats until those seats are filled.
Republicans plan to use the budget “reconciliation” process to pass Trump’s massive agenda package. That allows them to overcome the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, where Republicans have 53 seats (and after January 20, a tie-breaking vote from incoming Vice President JD Vance) and can leave Democrats out of the process.
One bill or two?
Key senators, including Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., have been pushing to split it into two bills, which would allow Republicans to score a quick victory on border funding and take some time to craft a second. tax bill.
But Johnson and Trump say they prefer a single package.
“The plan in the House has been a single bill. We met for two days over the weekend – two full days of discussion and strategizing with that in mind. And that’s our assumption right now,” Johnson told reporters Monday. “The Senate has a slightly different opinion and perspective on reconciliation and what the smarter strategy is than the House. And that’s okay, it’s part of this process.”
“We’re going to make this mission happen,” Johnson said.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-Louisiana, told NBC News that renewing Trump’s tax cuts, trillions of dollars of which expire at the end of this year, is the most difficult task.
“If we are going to address the fiscal aspect in the first bill, we are going to have to prepare and move forward. Because that will be, obviously, the most complicated part,” Kennedy said Monday before Congress certified Trump’s electoral victory. “Ironically, the immigration part, border security, will probably be the easiest thing we’ll tackle.”
To appease lawmakers and Trump allies who want to address the border immediately, House and Senate Republicans will vote on a series of immigration and border security bills in the coming weeks, according to two people with knowledge of those plans.
“We have six months to a year to show the American people that we are going to create change,” Kennedy said. “Now, whether you make it on one bill or two, frankly, I can show it round or flat. “Both have advantages and disadvantages.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., chairman of the Budget Committee that will oversee the Senate process, warned against a single-bill strategy.
“I’m very concerned,” he said Sunday on Fox News. “If we don’t prioritize the border and we don’t do it, it will be a nightmare for our national security. … If you hold border security hostage for tax cuts, you are playing Russian roulette with our national security.”
Thune also weighed in Monday, saying Republicans are “studying” how to proceed when asked about one-versus-two bills.
“Issues of process here are much less important than the results,” he told reporters.
House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., said Trump’s preference for a single bill means the debate is resolved.
“The House is drafting a bill,” he said. “It’s decided.”
Invoice limitations
The 50-vote reconciliation process means the package must follow strict rules and be limited to tax and spending issues. Under what is called the “Byrd Rule” (named after the late Senator Robert Byrd), senators of either party can challenge parts of a reconciliation bill that do not meet those criteria. The Senate parliamentarian must decide whether those provisions actually refer to taxes and spending or not, and if not, they are removed.
The only way to avoid it is to overturn the parliamentarian’s decision, something that even some hardline Republicans already say they prefer not to do.
“We’re pretty committed to preserving the filibuster, and that’s like blowing up the filibuster,” Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., a Trump ally, said last month, adding that Republicans “don’t need to change.” policy” to achieve their objectives on the border.
A serious complication is Johnson’s call to use the partisan bill to raise the debt ceiling, which Congress will need to do this year to avoid a calamitous economic default on American obligations. It’s an issue many Republicans hate to address, since it typically requires Democratic votes, and Johnson’s majority includes many members who have never voted to raise the country’s debt limit.
“I don’t know what amount you’re talking about or what time frame, but if the debt ceiling is going to be increased, real cuts are needed. That’s all. It’s that simple,” Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, said in an interview Monday. “If we could cut 12 cents, I’d have a damn parade,” Roy joked. “We suck at cutting.”
The Texan declined to identify a dollar amount. “We need significant, significant cuts. “I wouldn’t want to pre-negotiate that,” he said, making it clear that “we need to reduce deficits.”
“The objective of reconciliation is to reach deficit neutrality,” he added.
That will be very difficult to achieve in a bill that will likely add trillions of dollars to long-term debt by extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts before they expire at the end of this year. Trump is also asking Congress to attach his “no tip tax” proposal, which is expected to increase the cost of the package.
There are other potential annoyances Republicans may face. A massive package runs counter to the GOP’s longstanding demands to legislate in smaller, single-issue bills. And an undertaking of this magnitude will have to be negotiated by party leaders, often causing irritation among conservatives who say legislation must be developed from the bottom up, at the committee level.
In a Truth Social post on Sunday night, Trump called on Congress to advance his agenda in “a powerful bill.” But on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show on Monday, Trump kept the door ajar on the two-bill strategy, saying he sees its advantages.
“I am in favor of a bill. I also want everything to be approved. And you know, there are some people who don’t necessarily agree with that. So I’m open to that too,” Trump said. “My preference is a big bill, as I say, a big, beautiful bill. Now doing that takes more time. You know, sending it takes longer, actually. But it is a longer process. I would say I would live with that. … To me, it’s just a cleaner, it’s cleaner. It’s better. Now, having said that, we would do some border work a little earlier, etcetera, etcetera.”
Kennedy said Trump and Republicans need to make that decision quickly and get to work.
“I just want to know what the president thinks. I just want to have an agreement. Again, I am not committed to one bill or two bills,” the Louisiana Republican said. “I just think we all need to get in the same room and say, ‘Okay, this is our game plan. And some will be happy, others will be sad. Because there are some people who firmly believe in the Senate that we should divide them. But I also understand the House’s position. “We can probably clarify many things with the president, with a phone call.”
