Two recent developments have reinforced the tense relationship between Pakistan and India, which makes the perspective bleak for any defrosting in their ties. The first refers to the terrorist attack and the kidnapping of the Jaffar Express train in Baluchistan and statements that followed the Pakistani officials. The second development involves the accusations of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a podcast that Pakistan is fighting a war of power against his country. This word war is, of course, nothing new, but its re-eruption makes it even more difficult to overcome the prolonged diplomatic impasse between the two countries.
After the terrorist incident in Baluchistan, Pakistan’s military spokesman accused India of complicity, saying that the eastern neighbor of the country has been involved for a long time to promote such violence and support militant groups. These accusations echo what Islamabad has constantly said about Indian interference; The arrest of the raw operation Kulbhushan Jadhav in 2016 is incontrovertible evidence of this. The Indian Naval Officer who was convicted of Espionage had confessed his role in subversive activities in Pakistan and attending Baloch militant groups. India, predictably, rejected the latest accusations of Pakistani officials as “without foundation” saying that Pakistan should “look in.”
In a podcast with Lex Fridman, broadcast on March 16, the long comments of Prime Minister Modi about the tense relationship with Pakistan joined the toxic environment between the two countries. He attributed the problematic bilateral relationship with the search for Pakistan of “state sponsored by the State” and sincere peace efforts for decades. Stating that India had made peace movements, but was received by “betrayal” by Pakistan, who had not chosen the path of peaceful coexistence, described Pakistan as the “epicenter of agitation.” This was a family rhetoric, but its strident reiteration at this juncture injected more strains into the relationship.
The perspective for any normalization of India-Pakistan is still bleak.
Modi’s comments, in fact, reinforce the narrative, India has been built more and more against Islamabad. This completely blames Pakistan for the slide in relations, as well as the responsibility of any resumption of normal diplomatic relations. It is also part of a strategy to set up pressure on Pakistan in what many in India see as a moment of vulnerability. This is also indicated by the way in which the Indian media entered overwhelming after Baluchistan’s terrorist attack on what seemed like a orchestrated and hyper -sales coverage of the incident.
All this leaves relations between the two neighbors in an uncertain and unstable place. In the absence of formal dialogue, suspended now for more than five years, and given the nature of the problems that conduct present tensions, a back -Channel can be useful to handle tensions and avoid the risk of calculation error on each side.
Islamabad seems interested in establishing such a mechanism and has transmitted it informally through the process of track two, which implies exchanges between former officials and other participants in the two countries. On a track of two interaction held in London at the end of February, the Indian side did not respond to the suggestion of Pakistan’s Channal. On the other hand, he said that this could be discussed at the leadership level, either outside the Shanghai cooperation organization in July or Unga in September. That, of course, is whether the two prime ministers meet.
At the official level, Indian opinion is that existing arrangements are adequate to administer or prevent any crisis and a formal channel is not required for now. The reference seems to be the communication that has taken place on an ad hoc base between Rawalpindi and the National Security Advisor of India when tensions increased in the past. The last time this happened was during the Brahmos incident in March 2022, when India accidentally fired a missile from Ambala that landed in Mian Chann in Pakistan. The dangerous situation was quickly deactivated and a crisis was avoided.
There are several obstacles to the resumption of formal conversations between nuclear neighbors. The greatest obstacle is the seemingly unwavering gap in the positions of the two countries in Jammu and Cashmira busy. The relations, in fact, were broken when India illegally annexed, bifurcó and absorbed the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir in the Indian Union on August 5, 2019, in violation and challenge of the resolutions of the UN Security Council. The action of Delhi, accompanied by a wide set of repressive measures, led Pakistan to suspend trade and degrade diplomatic ties by remembering his high commissioner. The actions after 2019 of the Modi Government in J & K intensified even more tensions with Pakistan.
India wants Pakistan’s acceptance of August 5, 2019 to be the starting point for any re-compromise and is not willing to show flexibility much less offers any concession. Its officials have repeatedly said that Kashmir’s “problem” has been “solved” and there is nothing to negotiate with Pakistan. In August 2024, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of India, S. Jaishankar, declared that the “era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan has ended … Regarding J&K, [abrogation of] Article 370 is carried out. ”This approach to take it or-lend-it puts Pakistan in a dilemma. However, no matter how much the current paquistani leadership may want to move towards a modus vivendi with India, he cannot abandon his position of principles on Kashmir. The action of August 2019.
However, the participation of the level of work in practical issues continues through diplomatic missions in both capitals. This led in October 2024 to renew the agreement on the Kartarpur corridor for another five years to allow Sij Indian pilgrims to visit the sacred site. This was done at the request of New Delhi. The issuance of visas by both parties for visits to religious sites has been another area of cooperation, as well as the liberation of fishermen who deviate in the territorial waters of the other.
This low -level diplomatic channel obviously cannot produce a thaw. The relationship can only be expelled from your state frozen by leadership on both sides that show the will and accommodation necessary to achieve this. But for now, Indian leadership seems to have concluded that disconnection with Pakistan best serves their interests. The BJP government also sees a political advantage to constantly demonize Pakistan, since this reinforces his Hindutva agenda.
The writer is a former ambassador to the United States, the United Kingdom and the UN.
Posted in Dawn, March 24, 2025
