Let the madness begin! The NCAA tournament is one of the most attacked sporting events in the calendar, with more than $ 3.1 billion that is expected to be released. If you are looking to start strongly (and add money to your pocket), here are the five first round bets with which I feel safer this week.
As a reminder: betting games against the Spread (ATS) means that if the team is a loser +5.5, we need to arrive inside the five points to win to collect our bet. If the team is a favorite of -5.5, we need to win the game directly for at least six points to collect our bet.
Please, I always bet within your possibilities. All lines courtesy of Betmgm until Tuesday.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Uconn Huskies
Equipment to bet: Oklahoma +4.5 (-110)
In one of the most interesting raffles of the opening round, the two -time National Defensor Uconn champion faces Oklahoma in a raffle No. 8 vs. No. 9. The Huskies have fought against the dominant guards in these seasons and the Sooners have exactly that in the first year star Jeremiah Fears (17.0 points, 4.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game).
Oklahoma had 5-9 in the last 14 games, but eight of those defeats occurred against the NCAA tournament teams. In fact, 12 of Oklahoma’s defeats in the season have arrived against teams in the field of 68 and opponents of the SEC (Oklahoma was 13-0 in the game without conferences). UConn has struggled to defend triple (257 classification in the country with only 35.1%) and will not force ball losses (15.5% occupy position 291). It is also a known fact that the Big East has fallen this year, occupying the fourth place per Kenpom of all the main conferences after finishing second last year in 2023.
The Sooners played the best night competition in the SEC, and I think that pays dividends against Uconn. The Huskies seemed emotionally vulnerable and frustrated against Creighton, and Oklahoma will not be easier. I took the sooners in +4.5.
Utah State Aggies vs. UCLA Bruins
Equipment to bet: Utah State +4.5 (-110)
The state of Utah executes a strange 1-3-1 defense that tries to remove triples and force ball losses. The AGGIES do a fairly good job of both, classifying the 38th position in the nation and the third in the MWC for the percentage of defensive rotation and allowing the equipment to shoot only 33.8% from the range of 3 points (178). UCLA has not played a defense like that of Utah State, and the Bruins are located outside the 150 best in a percentage of effective and defensive field goal in the last 10 games.
Mick Cronin is 9-3 as a UCLA chief coach in the NCAA Tournament (Seeds No. 2, No. 4 and No. 11), but Big Dance was lost last year. With both defenses playing in slow tempos (311 and 362), I like this to be a routine and a low score. The state of Utah is a good bet to disturb UCLA, so I took the points +4.5 and +5.5.
UC San Diego Tritons vs. Michigan Wolverines
Equipment to bet: UC San Diego +2.5 (-110)
Dusty May and Michigan could be the most popular choice of all seeds No. 5 that got angry despite winning the Big Ten tournament by winning Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin. The Wolverines race was impressive after they finished the regular season on a three -game losing streak to Illinois, Maryland and Michigan State.
However, Michigan ranks 328 in the country with an offensive billing percentage of 19.8%. In Big Ten Play, Michigan occupies the lower two at the conference for the percentage of offensive and defensive billing, which is a recipe for disaster.
UC San Diego took the seventh place in the country for the percentage of offensive billing (13.4%) and the second defensive (23.2%) with the defensive tempo in 340 position. In other words, the tritones turn you around and play slowly and do not turn the ball on themselves. UC San Diego can win this game, so take the points with the Tritans.
Robert Morris Colonials vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Equipment to bet: Alabama -22.5 (-110)
Robert Morris played an opponent among the 100 best this season, and that was at the opening of the season in West Virginia in early November. The colonials lost 87-59 and gave 46 points in the first half. Alabama plays in the fastest tempo in the country and the fourth fastest offensively, while Robert Morris has the average duration of average possession 39 in defense and the second fastest in the Horizon League.
This is a terrible confrontation for Robert Morris, and I don’t see any reason why Alabama does not get as much as he wants, especially after he played the most difficult schedule in the country. I like Alabama to cover the opening line of -20.5 to -23.5 against Robert Morris.
Nebraska-Amaha Mavericks vs. St. John’s Red Storm
Equipment to bet: St. John’s -17.5
Nebraska-Amaha made the NCAA tournament for the first time in its history of the 14-year program. The Mavericks celebrated listening to their name Selection Sunday, but that is the only thing they will celebrate. An appointment with Rick Pitino and St. John’s Thursday is a first leg to the holidays starting Friday.
The red storm has one of the best raffles in the tournament and has drastically improved its 3 -point shot, which was an Achilles heel from the beginning. In the last 10 games, St. John’s reduced 33.3% of its triples compared to 29.1% before that (341).
The Mavericks like to play fast, but if the red storm is forcing ball losses (13) and making their triples, then Nebraska-Maha should lose for more than 20 points, as it did against Iowa State (83-51) in December.
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